Mark Clairmont | MuskokaTODAY.com

SIMCOE-MUSKOKA — The numerical importance of today is that COVID could still stab us in the back.

The empirical importance of March 15 is the settling of debts.

In keeping, the health unit Monday reported 26 cases — the province said it was more like 34.

Today, Public Health Ontario (PHO) reports 47 cases and the Simcoe Muskoka District Health Unit (SMDHU) isn’t posting any numbers — as it moves to thrice weekly postings.

Throughout the pandemic we’ve questioned the veracity of some of SMDHU’s HealthSTATS, receiving unsatisfactory responses to our queries.

It’s a problem that plagues both the health unit and readers; and perplexes editors.

Now that the health unit says — as of yesterday, March 14 — all COVID-19 HealthSTATS pages will only Monday, Wednesday and Friday, we’ve had a little more time to ferret out our own answers at long last — two years.

It seems, according to SMHDU, “the province reports COVID-19 cases and deaths by the cases’ permanent address, whereas SMDHU reports cases and deaths based on where the case was living at the time of infection. Due to this difference, numbers presented by the province will not align with what is posted on HealthSTATS.”

No wonder numbers have been so skewed in Muskoka — the least.

Confusing? We agree.

Nonetheless, the province (PHO) reports 1,076 cases Tuesday (knowing full well that it’s more like 10,700).

Closer to home, 47 confirmed cases by SMDHU translates in to 470 cases today?

Meanwhile, the health unit says as of Sunday 22 were in hospital with 7 in ICU.

The March of deaths …

As of today 7 residents have died in March, 51 in February and 74 in January.

On March 11, the province changed their reporting of deaths among COVID-19 cases to exclude active cases who died but COVID-19 was not identified on the death certificate. These individuals are now included in the “resolved” category in provincial metrics.

SMDHU continues to include all COVID-19 cases who died in their count of fatalities. A breakdown of deaths is now available by type of death to separate out those where COVID-19 contributed or caused the death, those where COVID-19 was not explicitly indicated on their death certificate and those where the information is unknown or pending. Please refer to the Severity Page and Technical Notes pages for more information.

• Seventeen of the past 20 deaths have been in seniors 70 years of age and over.
• The median age of those admitted to hospital since January, 2022 is 72 years, which is five years older than the median age of those admitted from September to December. The median age of those admitted to the ICU since January, 2022 is 68 years, which is also 5 years older than the median age of those admitted to the ICU from September to December.
• Since the onset of Omicron (wave 5 starting on Dec. 12, 2021), approximately 1% of reported cases have required hospitalization and only 0.1% of reported cases required admission to the ICU.
• Over 3% of all 423 COVID-19 cases have been hospitalized and 1% of cases have passed away.
• The number of active ICU admissions in the month of April 2021 was the highest since the start of the pandemic (21). Active ICU admissions have remained near or below 10 since mid-May.
• 80% of hospitalized COVID-19 cases have recovered. This excludes cases currently in hospital.
• Over 40% of deaths were never hospitalized. This is due to the disproportionately large impact of COVID-19 mortality on long-term care and retirement home residents who passed away without being hospitalized.
• For waves 3 and 4 of the pandemic (February 14th, 2021 to December 11th, 2021) approximately 4% of all cases required hospitalization, including approximately 1% that were admitted to the ICU.

TUESDAY: CONFIRMED PHO COVID CASES: 47 IN SIMCOE-MUSKOKA (34 YESTERDAY) … ONTARIO 1,076 (1,116) AND 13 DEATHS; 638 IN HOSPITAL, 220 IN ICU (228) … TORONTO 235 (244) … YORK 64 (60) … PEEL 90 (43) … NORTH BAY-PARRY SOUND 9 (11) …

HEALTH UNIT HIGHLIGHTS:

• 36,591 confirmed cases to date
• 26 new cases Sunday
• 432 cases last week, 12% lower than the 492 cases reported for the week of Feb. 27.
• 7 deaths in March, 51 in February, 74 in January
• From July 18 to March 13 the rate of COVID-19 hospitalizations among the unvaccinated vaccine-eligible Simcoe Muskoka population is 4 times higher than it is for those who have received at least two vaccine doses, the rate of COVID-19 ICU admissions is 8 times higher and the rate of deaths is 3 times higher.
• 1,277,391 vaccines have been administered
• 497,228 residents have received at least one vaccine, which represents 81% of the total population
• 85% of the population 5+ have had at least one vaccine, including 81% of youth 12 to 17
• 49% of children 5 to 11 have also received at least one vaccine

IN OTHER COVID NEWS …

• China is seeing a massive resurgence — well ahead of what many now believe it the inevitability of fall’s return to lockdowns.
• Conservative leadership candidate Jean Charest has tested positive
• Ontario PSWs to receive permanent raise that began during COVID.
• Joe Biden is pleading with Congress to resurrect $15.6 billion in lapsed pandemic funding, which was stripped from last week’s budget deal to keep the government funded, as efforts to pass a separate bill face a fight in the 50-50 Senate.
• Economists predict surging price hikes this year — in parts due to the virus and the war in Ukraine.

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