Mark Clairmont | MuskokaTODAY.com

SIMCOE-MUSKOKA — You may have had COVID and didn’t know it — even if you didn’t show symptoms.

So agrees Dr. Charles Gardner, who says he himself hasn’t gotten COVID — “to my knowledge or had symptoms.

“I’ve been extremely careful. I’ve taken every precaution that I advised.”

He said: “Me and my immediate household have not been ill. So I’m very grateful for that. And I feel for those who have.”

So you didn’t seek testing — even if you could get a PCR test and you had lucky access to rapid testing that showed negative results.

What’s a person to do when Ontario’s science table said yesterday about 1 in 4 of you have already had since Dec. 1?

Gardner, medical officer of health for the Simcoe Muskoka District Health Unit (SMDHU) says you’re probably doing all the right things now — mostly presuming you’ve been vaccinated once, twice, thrice.

And — of course continuing the same health care protocols as of official now the past two years.

What’s left but to accept the fact that you’re next on the hit list if you haven’t already been.

COVID is coming to get you no matter what you do.

Just hope the health care system — i.e. hospitals — will be there for you and able to help you cope.

Life or death.

This as the health unit “confirms” 219 people had positive lab tests for the virus on the first day of February.

There were also 4 deaths all in Simcoe reported today.

But now numbers, which have been a counted on number for 24 months during the first four waves, appear to be not worth the digital paper they’re printed on or read out.

There’s simply no accurate metric or measure of Omicron.

In Muskoka, certainly, most thought the virus was circulating in the community more than was reported.

We’ve written in recent weeks that daily accounts are at least a hint of the problem upon which medical “experts” and politicians have relied on as they struggled to grasp COVID’s severity.

Endemic? You bet. Get use to it.

Add COVID to death and taxes.

Gardner said with 32,055 confirmed cases to date that’s 2,831 more than his last update two weeks ago on Jan. 19.

But, again, he admits those are unreliable as testing is now being focussed on high-risk, high-priority segments of the community like those living and working in vulnerable LTCs, retirement and congregate setting — and not the public at large any longer.

Cases now are five times higher than in the previous four waves.

There have been 61 deaths since the fifth wave began eight weeks ago, which has surpassed deaths in the first wave and the fourth wave and is very similar to the much longer third wave when 65 cases were reported.

Gardner said: “The current level of hospitalization on a weekly basis has been 23 cases, which is the highest we’ve seen on a weekly basis at any point in the pandemic.

“And currently we have had the highest weekly rate of deaths that we have seen in the pandemic as well. We’ve had 8 deaths per week on average during this fifth wave.”

As well SMDHU has a rate of incidents of cases that’s slightly higher than the province.

“So we’ve been coming down, but the province has been coming down more quickly for most of the fifth wave,” which was previously the reverse.

Continuing to use confirmed cases, last week’s 1,286 cases were down 29 per cent from 1,822 the week before.

That has the region at 213 cases per 100,000 populations per week compared to 201 per 100,000 for the Ontario overall.

He said 26 per cent of last week’s cases were unvaccinated, 69 per cent had two or more vaccinations and 6 per cent were partially vaccinated.

In addition most recently 308 cases were among those who had booster doses — three doses — beyond 14 days after their third dose. That’s 24 per cent of last week’s cases.

This reinforces the risks of unvaccination, which shows those unvaccinated are six times more likely to end up in hospital, compared to those fully vaccinated (two doses). And 12 times more likely to end up in ICU.

And four times more likely to die.

“It certainly speaks to the importance of vaccination, of getting two and when eligible getting a third dose. Those who are 18 and above are eligible to receive a third dose.

“There is that much more protection against severity. Two doses provide a fairly high degree of protection against severity and hospital admissions, ICU admissions and death. But three doses is that much better. And three doses provides some degree of protection against transmission.

“You really can’t rely on two doses to avoid transmission. For everybody we are recommending you get vaccinated to the level that you are eligible for. And keep the other protective measures in place — social distancing, masking, and maintaining a smaller social circle and self monitoring and self isolation if you develop symptoms. And seeking medical attention if you develop severe symptoms and seeking testing if you’re eligible to be tested.”

Gardner said the region’s per cent positivity rate is down to 13.3 per cent from 16.7 per cent last week (which is below Ontario’s rate of 17.5 per cent).

He called the number “an indicator of the amount of transmission happening in the community as well as the availability, sufficiency of testing. So anything above 3 per cent is of concern. This is an important indicator if we can’t be totally certain of the interpretation of the incidents of cases, because of the restriction on those who can get tested. We’re relying also very much on the per cent positivity, having it come down as well is a positive indicator for us. A good indicator that we’re headed in the right direction.”

As of Wednesday there are 48 hospitalizations compared to 30 two weeks ago today — all Simcoe-Muskoka residents. They range in age from under 5 to their 90s. Ninety per cent are over age 50.

There are also 4 in ICU, up from 2 Jan. 19.

Of the 48 in hospital 6 are from outbreaks, 42 community-based. And 17 are unvaccinated (35 per cent), including 2 of the 4 in ICU. Twenty-three in hospital had two vaccinations (48 per cent of cases — including 2 of those in ICU). And 1 was partially vaccinated and 7 had had booster shots.

All were Omicron cases.

Also in January 5 kids under age 5 ended up in hospital.

There were 46 deaths past two weeks – most elderly and outbreaks in LTC and congregate settings. The week of Jan. 16 there were 23 alone. That compares to Jan. 17, 2021 when that week 36 died — and the week after that when 29 died.

The latest deaths were among those aged 40s to more than 100 years old.

Of them 25 were men, 21 women.

Eleven of them were in Muskoka and 36 in Simcoe — with 26 in 13 facility outbreaks.

Muskoka deaths included:

• 2 at Georgian Bay Seniors Landing
• 2 at Muskoka Algonquin Healthcare hospitals
• 4 at Muskoka Landing in Huntsville
• 2 at Muskoka Shores in Gravenhurst
• 1 at The Pines LTC in Bracebridge

Among those latest deaths, 14 were unvaccinated, 2 partially vaccinated, 2 had had two doses and 16 had three doses.

Vaccinations …

Almost 44 per cent of Simcoe-Muskoka residents have had a booster shot.

Monck Public School in Bracebridge will be open for kid’s vaccinations 1-3 p.m. Thursday and open for the public and kids 4-7 p.m.

Gardner said immunizations continue and among those 12+ 89 per cent have had a first dose; 87 per cent a second dose. That includes 70 per cent who are 50+ and 85 per cent 70+.

He said there’s been a “brisk” uptake of those getting booster shots — with 2,800 people booked for third shots through to Feb. 11.

That’s in addition to 1,845 who got their third shot yesterday.

Also 48 per cent of kids 5-11 have gotten their first dose — which is more than 21,000 children who are now awaiting a second shot 8 weeks after their first.

Gardner said wastewater studies by the province show an increase and plateauing in Barrie, Orillia and Collingwood, while a decrease in Midland.

Gardner did say he remains “concerned” about the latest provincial reopenings and “saddened” by the continual rise in cases, even as he sees no indication of lack of care in LTCs and retirement homes and similar settings where cases have really risen the past two months.

HEALTH UNIT HIGHLIGHTS:

• 32,055 confirmed cases to date
• 336 new cases reported to the health unit for the current week. There were 1,286 new cases reported to the health unit last week (week of January 23rd), 29% lower than the 1,822 cases reported for the week of January 16th.
• 62 deaths in January, 10 in December
• From July 18 to Feb. 1 the rate of COVID-19 hospitalizations among the unvaccinated vaccine-eligible Simcoe Muskoka population is 6 times higher than it is for those who have received at least two vaccine doses, the rate of COVID-19 ICU admissions is 12 times higher and the rate of deaths is 4 times higher.
• 1,245,054 vaccines have been administered
• 494,379 residents have received at least one vaccine, which represents 82% of the total population
• 86% of the population 5+ have had at least one vaccine; including 82% of youth 12 to 17
• 48% of children 5 to 11 have also received at least one vaccine

EMAIL: [email protected]

28 years of ‘Local Online Journalism’

Twitter: @muskokatoday, Facebook: mclairmont1

Leave comments at end of story

SUBSCRIBE for $25 by e-transferring to [email protected]

Or go online to https://muskokatoday.com/subscriptions